Rail/Intermodal
Winter weather appeared to take a bite out of rail traffic during the latest week, although both rail carload and intermodal volume increased week over week. With widespread winter weather continuing for much of this week, rail volume likely continued to be stressed.
North American rail carload volume advanced 3.2% sequentially during the week ended January, but carloads were down 9.1% y/y. Economically sensitive freight was stronger week over week, rising 9.4%, but it was down 3.7% y/y.
Rail carload commodities seeing double-digit declines sequentially were primary forest products, non-metallic minerals, and coke. The strongest increase came in motor vehicles and equipment, which saw rail carloadings jump more than 44% from the prior week. Even so, vehicles and equipment loadings were down 5.4% y/y.
Other commodities seeing strong gains week over week include metal scrap, lumber and wood products, farm products, and crushed stone, sand, and gravel.
The sharpest declines relative to the same 2023 week were in grain and farm products, both of which were down more than 25% y/y. Other commodities down more than 10% y/y in the latest week include primary forest products, coal, coke, non-metallic minerals, and crushed stone, sand, and gravel.
Total North American intermodal volume increased 14.8% week over week, although the small category of intermodal trailers rose nearly 26%. Even so, intermodal trailer volume was down more than 21% y/y. Total intermodal volume was basically in line with the same 2023 week at just 0.4% higher y/y.
Mexican rail traffic is but a fraction of that represented by the U.S. and Canada, but it is performing much better on a percentage basis. Most rail commodities were down y/y in the U.S. – chemicals, petroleum, and intermodal were the major exceptions – and almost all Canadian commodities were down y/y. On the other hand, most Mexican commodities were strongly higher y/y.
Mexican intermodal traffic is not doing as well as initially reported a week ago, however. The initial report for the first week of the year had been more than 35,000 loadings, which would have been a 330% surge y/y.
However, in the latest data reported to the Association of American Railroads, Mexican intermodal loads totaled around 11,500 during the second week with a cumulative total in the first two weeks of nearly 21,700. That data puts Mexican intermodal load during the first week at about 10,150, not more than 35,000. Through the second week of the year, Mexican intermodal volume is still quite strong with a gain of nearly 25% y/y.
Gulf Coast Proceeding
The Surface Transportation Board directed parties to provide additional information by February 1 on the status of a settlement agreement to allow Amtrak to operate service in the Gulf Coast region. The parties involved are Amtrak, CSX, Norfolk Southern, and the Port of Mobile. The board has scheduled a February 14 hearing, if necessary, for the parties to report on the settlement status more fully.
