Rail/Intermodal
Total North American rail traffic was up 2.8% y/y for the week ending June 8, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
Carloads were down 2.6% y/y this week, unchanged from last week. The primary reason for the decline continues to be coal, however, the effect of coal is smaller now than it has been in recent weeks. For week 23, coal carloads were down 15.3%, up from their trough of -27.6% back in April, and has now been growing w/w for 6 consecutive weeks.
Among the other commodities, results were mixed, with 10 posting y/y gains, and the other 10 showing y/y declines.
Intermodal had another strong week and, contrary to previous expectations, intermodal traffic has been exceeding 2023 levels at increasing levels of magnitude over the past month. Over the past four weeks, total intermodal traffic has grown 4.5%, 5.7%, 8.2%, and for the most recent week, 8.3% y/y. Some of the recent strength stems from the holiday comparisons and we will get more consistent results in the coming weeks.
YTD, total rail traffic is up 2.0%, with carloads down 3.8% and intermodal up 8.1%. Of the 10 commodity carload groups reported by the AAR, four show positive YTD y/y growth, down from five last week. These commodities include chemicals, petroleum products, motor vehicles & parts, and grain, with the “other” category reverting to YTD y/y declines.
