Rail traffic was positive in January, in most aspects (not intermodal, down 7%) according to the AAR/RTI. But, especially for the US, the comparisons are to what they call the worst January since RTI records (1988) and we all note that after the bomb cyclones (whatever) January has been mild, to say the least. The breakdowns are:
- US carloads up 2.2% (12/20); the totals were dragged down (-3.2%) by IM. Industrial Products (a combination of 7 subcategories) were up just under one percent (0.8%) despite an 11.4% decline in chemicals. Autos were up 13.4%. Coal was up 4.6% but the cat’s bounce may be ending (if not the feline’s yields) as the EIA sees an 11% drop in production in ’23 and another 6% in 2024 (meanwhile 2022 was about one-half of the 2008 peak).
- US Intermodal was down 8.1%, the worst January since 2013.
- Separately IANA published Q4/22 numbers, down 3.6%; that is domestic containers down 4.2%, TOFC still crashing down (-29.7%) and International up 0.9%. It’s ugly out there….
- Canada showed a whopping 17.4% increase in carloads (15/20 were up!), with the grain comps here being so favorable (+50.7%, coal 22.5% - power of exports). IM followed the desultory trend, down 4.3%, so the Total was +7.3%.
- Mexican carloads were up 1% (10/20) but where they were up was interesting: Petroleum Products +34.5%, grain +18.3%, autos +1.5%. IM was up 0.6% bringing the Total to +0.8%.
- Total North American traffic for January 2023 was down 0.9% - not wonderful given the weather and the comps and the hiring and….Carloads were up 5.5% (11/20), IM down 7%.